You Can’t Stay Busy With Strangers: The Frameworks That Actually Grow a Restaurant

A special thanks to Toast for partnering with me on this article. This is the revenue-first system I teach independent operators, and the new Toast and Resy data that proves every piece of it works.

By Josh Kopel. Michelin-awarded restaurateur, host of the FULL COMP podcast, and founder of the Restaurant Scaling System.

Would you believe that 50% of your restaurant’s volume could be coming from as little as 7% of your guests? What if you’ve been looking at your business and our industry from the wrong angle all along?

Most restaurant owners are trying to cook their way out of a math problem.

They believe that if the food just gets a little better, everything else falls into place. So they pour their energy into the kitchen and their money into chasing strangers, and they wonder why the business still feels fragile.

I have spent my career teaching a different sequence, built from operating restaurants across every tier of dining in Los Angeles. It is not a theory. It is the order of operations that actually moves money. And for years my proof was my own results.

Now there is outside proof. Toast, in collaboration with Resy, published the 2026 Regulars Report, a data set drawn from Toast point-of-sale transactions, a Toast Loyalty impact study, a survey of 1,500 U.S. diners, and three years of Resy reservation data. I read all of it. And nearly every number lands on top of something I already teach.

So here are the frameworks, in order, with the data that validates each one. Be sure to read to the end. Framework 6 is going to change the way you think about loyalty forever.

Framework 1: Money first, attention second, frequency third

This is the master sequence. Fix the money you already make, then earn attention, then drive frequency. Most owners run it backwards. They chase new followers and new ads while ignoring the handful of guests already funding the whole operation.

Here is why that is a mistake. Toast platform data from Q1 2026 found that up to 50% of a restaurant’s total order volume can come from just 7% of its guests. Half the business is sitting in a tiny circle of seats.

If a small group of regulars drives half your volume, then optimizing what they spend and how often they return is not step three of your marketing. It is the highest-leverage work you can do. Attention is only worth buying once the model you are pouring it into stops leaking.

Framework 2: Great food is the cover charge

I say this with a Michelin award on the wall. Great food does not win the game. It buys you a seat at the table. It is the price of entry, not the differentiator.

The data says the same thing. In the Toast survey, food quality was the baseline requirement for 52% of guests. It is what gets you considered. But when Toast asked what actually makes guests feel valued enough to come back, 48% pointed to being remembered by name or order, more than double the 22% who chose a points-based reward. Feeling recognized was a main reason for returning for 32% of diners.

Then comes the number that should keep you up at night. While 48% of guests say recognition is what they want most, only 30% say they always receive it.

That gap is the opportunity. Your kitchen is doing its job. The system that turns a stranger into a name, the one that actually drives return visits, is the thing most restaurants have never built.

Framework 3: Get more money from every guest before you chase a new one

Before you spend a dollar on acquisition, sell the best version of the restaurant to the people already walking in. Price correctly. Engineer the menu. Build the perfect check. This is the cheapest revenue in your building.

The report shows exactly why regulars are the guests to optimize around. When a guest feels at home, the ordering anxiety that keeps checks small disappears. Toast found that 34% of regulars report spending more per check simply because they are comfortable, and regulars are 80% more likely to try a new menu item. That is where your high-margin specials live.

They also take better care of your staff. 77% of guests tip more at the restaurants where they are regulars, with 46% adding an extra 5% to 10% and 37% adding 10% to 15% or more.

Line it up. Your regulars visit more, spend more per visit, reach for the expensive items, and tip your team better. Every dollar of value you build into that relationship compounds. That is what “more money from every guest” looks like in the data.

Framework 4: Own your guests. Stop renting them from Google and Instagram.

I tell operators that anonymous transactions are the silent killer. If you cannot reach a guest again for free, you do not own the relationship. You are renting it from a platform that keeps raising the rent.

The Toast data draws the line clearly. Among restaurants using Toast Marketing tools in Q1 2026, 86% of orders driven by email and 83% driven by SMS came from people who had already dined there. Those are your owned channels, and they reach the guests most likely to come back. Compare that to search engines, where 83% of users were one-and-done. Gift cards leak too, with 57% of orders on the platform coming through anonymously, no name and no way to invite the guest back.

And when you do own the relationship, the return rate multiplies. In Q1 2026, guests in Toast’s loyalty ecosystem returned at roughly 4x the rate of a standard walk-in. At restaurants with active programs, members retained at about 2x the rate of new customers and 1.5x the rate of the general guest base.

Capture the name. End the anonymous transaction. Own the guest instead of renting them. The data says that single shift is a return-rate multiplier.

Framework 5: A reminder beats a reward. Build a club, not a loyalty program.

Owners try to manufacture loyalty with points and discounts. But guests do not want to be processed. They want to be known. So I teach operators to build a club, a relationship, not a transactional points scheme.

The data backs the reframe hard. Human recognition matters most to 48% of guests, against just 22% for a points-based reward. And more than half of diners have quit a loyalty program because the rewards were too hard to earn or simply not worth it. Points alone do not create loyalty. Being known does.

There is a sharp nuance here that matches something I preach constantly: match the offer to the concept. Toast Loyalty data from Q1 2026 found that cashback rewards drove the highest 90-day retention, 24% to 26%, for casual spots like pizzerias and cafes. But in fine dining, a cash rebate can feel cheap. In that segment an experience-based reward such as a complimentary course drove a 20% retention rate, compared to just 13% for cashback.

The lesson is not “run a discount.” The right gesture depends on the room. A cash reward works at the counter. A comped course works in the dining room. Recognition works everywhere.

Framework 6: Your regulars didn’t leave. They forgot you.

This is the reframe that changes how owners think about retention. Your lapsed guests are rarely disloyal. Life got loud, and you never reminded them you exist. People do not have a loyalty problem. They have a memory problem.

The data confirms it is a slow fade, not a blow-up. Toast found that 43% of diners who stopped visiting a favorite spot blamed gradual regressions rather than one bad night: a decline in food quality (31%), price increases (22%), and a drop in service warmth (15%). Quiet erosion, not a dramatic exit.

A guest who forgot you does not need 10% off. They need to hear from you. And the math on that reminder is the best in your building. A guest who visits once a month at $60 is worth $720 a year. Get them to twice a month, at zero acquisition cost, and they are worth $1,440. Run that across 100 regulars and one extra visit a month is $72,000 a year. That second visit comes from a reminder, not a discount.

Framework 7: Build a Preloaded Year

Stop inventing a new promotion twelve times a year. Plan the calendar once. When your best guests return on a rhythm, your revenue becomes something you can predict and plan around instead of something you hope for.

Regulars are what make that possible. According to Resy data, 83% of a Regular’s visits are booked in advance, while 52% of Non-Regular visits are walk-ins.1 The more Regulars you have, the more of your book you can see coming, which means smarter labor, tighter prep, and less reliance on the chaos of the walk-in.

They also engage with you like a relationship, not an app. Regulars are nearly 3x more likely than Non-Regulars to bypass the booking platforms and contact the restaurant directly2, and they buy 46% more event tickets3, treating you as a brand rather than a single meal. One practical planning note from the data: more than half of Regular reservations are for a party of two, followed by parties of three (16%), four (15%), five or more (12%), and solo diners (5%)4. Your highest-value guests arrive in pairs, so the two-top experience deserves real attention.

Predictability is a form of profit. The Preloaded Year is how you capture it.

Putting It All Together

Every framework above is one idea in a single sequence. Money first: a small group of regulars drives up to half your volume, spends more, and tips better. Attention second, pointed at the surfaces that actually convert, because search and anonymous transactions bring strangers who leave while your owned channels bring back the people who pay you. Frequency third: a reminder beats a reward, recognition beats points, and one more visit a month from your regulars is the cheapest revenue you will ever earn.

The Toast and Resy 2026 Regulars Report did not teach me any of this. It confirmed it. You cannot stay busy with strangers. The most stable, most profitable part of your business is already sitting in your dining room. Your job is to price it right, own the relationship, and give them a reason to come back.

Frequently Asked Questions

Should a restaurant focus on getting new customers or keeping regulars?

Regulars first. The sequence I teach is money first, attention second, frequency third, because the guests you already have are the cheapest revenue you own. Toast’s 2026 Regulars Report validates this: up to 50% of a restaurant’s total order volume can come from just 7% of its guests. Chasing new customers before you have optimized the value of your regulars is spending money to fill a model that leaks.

Why does Josh Kopel say restaurants don’t have a food problem?

Because great food is the cover charge, not the differentiator. It gets you considered but it does not drive return visits. In the Toast survey, food quality was the baseline for 52% of guests, but 48% said being remembered by name or order is what makes them feel most valued, and only 30% say they always receive that recognition. The real problem is usually a missing recognition and retention system, not the kitchen.

What is the fastest way to increase restaurant revenue without new customers?

Increase the value of the guests already walking in, then increase how often they return. Regulars spend more per check (34% report doing so) and are 80% more likely to try higher-margin menu items, per Toast. On top of that, getting a single guest to visit twice a month instead of once can double their annual value at zero acquisition cost. Optimize the check, then drive frequency.

Do loyalty points actually build customer loyalty?

Not on their own. Guests want to be known, not processed. Toast found that human recognition matters most to 48% of diners versus just 22% for a points-based reward, and more than half of diners have abandoned a loyalty program because the rewards were too hard to earn or not worth it. Build a club and a relationship first, and use rewards to support it, not replace it.

What is the best type of loyalty reward for a restaurant?

Match the reward to the concept. Toast Loyalty data from Q1 2026 found cashback drove the highest 90-day retention, 24% to 26%, for casual spots like pizzerias and cafes. In fine dining, an experience-based reward such as a complimentary course drove 20% retention versus 13% for cashback. A cash reward reads well at the counter; a comped course reads better in the dining room.

How much is one extra visit per month from a regular worth?

More than most owners realize. A guest who visits once a month at a $60 check is worth $720 a year. Move them to twice a month and, with no acquisition cost, they are worth $1,440. Across 100 regulars, one extra monthly visit is roughly $72,000 a year. This is why a reminder to a lapsed guest outperforms a discount to a stranger.

Why should a restaurant collect guest contact information?

Because you cannot bring a guest back if you cannot reach them. Toast found that 86% of email-driven orders and 83% of SMS-driven orders came from guests who had already dined there, while 83% of search-engine visitors were one-and-done and 57% of gift card orders were anonymous. Owning the guest’s contact information is what lets you turn a first visit into a habit instead of renting the relationship from Google or a delivery app.

How do you win back a regular who stopped coming in?

Usually you just have to remind them. Most lapsed regulars did not leave over a single bad night; Toast found 43% cited a gradual decline in food quality, price, or service warmth. Often the guest simply drifted and forgot. A personal, well-timed reminder from a channel you own, rather than a discount, is typically what brings them back.

About the Data

All figures cited in this article are drawn from the Toast and Resy 2026 Regulars Report. The report combines aggregated, anonymized Toast point-of-sale transaction data from Q1 2026, a Toast Loyalty impact analysis over a 90-day window (January to April 2026), a Pollfish consumer survey of 1,500 U.S. adults who dine out or order in at least twice a month (fielded April 2026). For all Resy Data in this report: A “Regular” in this data set is defined as a user with 3 or more visits to the same venue within 1/1/2023 and 12/31/2025. A “Non-Regular” in this data set is defined as a user with 2 or less visits to the same venue within 1/1/2023 and 12/31/2025. This data set includes only completed reservations in New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Atlanta, Washington D.C., Chicago, and Miami for the given time period. All information is from Resy proprietary data.

1. 1. Based on the percentage of Completed Reservations where Reservation Source equals “Walk- In”, when comparing Completed Reservations for “Regular” vs. “Non-Regular” users at restaurants where the user is considered a “Regular” or “Non-Regular”, according to Resy proprietary data.
2. 2. Based on the percentage of Completed Reservations where Reservation Source equals “Resy OS (iPad)”, when comparing Completed Reservations for “Regular” vs. “Non-Regular” users at restaurants where the user is considered a “Regular” or “Non-Regular”, according to Resy proprietary data.
3. 3. Based on the percentage of Event Tickets Purchased by “Regular” vs. “Non-Regular” users at restaurants where the user is considered a “Regular” or “Non-Regular”, according to Resy proprietary data.
4. 4. Based on the percentage of Completed Reservations by Party Size at restaurants where the user is considered a “Regular”, according to Resy proprietary data.

For the full data set, methodology, and every chart, read the complete report from Toast here: The Regulars Report 2026, by Toast and Resy.

Josh Kopel is a Michelin-awarded restaurateur, the former President of the California Restaurant Association, and the host of the FULL COMP podcast. Through the Restaurant Scaling System, he helps independent restaurant owners build revenue-first demand systems that turn one-time guests into regulars and regulars into revenue. His work is grounded in decades of operating restaurants across every tier of dining in Los Angeles.